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Bihar Assembly Election: Seat-Sharing Talks Heat Up as NDA and Mahagathbandhan Gear Up for High Stakes Battle

Patna (India News Reporter): The political landscape of Bihar is buzzing with anticipation as the Election Commission of India (ECI) officially unveiled the schedule for the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly elections just two days ago, setting the stage for a fiercely contested battle across all 243 seats.

With voting slated for November 6 and 11 in two phases, and results to be declared on November 14, the polls promise to be a litmus test for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) against the opposition Mahagathbandhan led by Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Amid ongoing seat-sharing negotiations and fresh opinion polls favoring the NDA, the campaign trail is already witnessing sharp rhetoric, celebrity endorsements, and controversies over voter lists.

The announcement comes at a time when Bihar’s 7.42 crore electors – including over 14 lakh first-time voters are gearing up for what could be one of the most polarized elections in recent memory. The state’s assembly term ends on November 22, and the ECI has emphasized a ‘free, fair, and fearless’ process, deploying nearly 50,000 Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) personnel initially, with provisions for horse patrols at 250 polling stations and boat access to 197 remote booths. Webcasting at all polling stations and real-time turnout updates via the Voter Helpline app will ensure transparency, according to Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar.

Poll Schedule: A Two-Phase Sprint Post-Chhath Puja

The ECI’s decision to conduct the elections in just two phases  a departure from the five-phase format of 2020  has been hailed by parties for potentially boosting voter turnout, especially as it follows the culturally significant Chhath Puja festival (October 25-28), when millions of migrant workers return home. The detailed timeline is as follows:

Phase Voting Date Key Constituencies (Approximate) Gazette Notification Last Date for Nominations Scrutiny of Nominations Last Date for Withdrawal Counting Date
Phase 1 November 6 121 seats (Western & Northern Bihar, e.g., Patna, Nalanda, Vaishali) October 17 October 24 October 25 October 28 November 14
Phase 2 November 11 122 seats (Eastern & Southern Bihar, e.g., Purnea, Darbhanga, Madhubani) October 20 October 27 October 28 October 30 November 14

The Model Code of Conduct (MCC) kicked in immediately on October 6, prompting swift action from enforcement agencies. Alongside Bihar’s polls, bye-elections for eight assembly seats across seven states/UTs (including Jharkhand’s Ghatshila ST seat) will coincide with Phase 2.

NDA’s Seat-Sharing Stalemate: Chirag Paswan Pushes for More

In the ruling NDA  comprising Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), BJP, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) [LJP(RV)] and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) [HAM(S)] internal negotiations are reaching a fever pitch. A crucial meeting of the BJP’s Central Election Committee (CEC) is slated for today in Patna, where final tweaks to seat allocation are expected. LJP(RV) chief Chirag Paswan, whose party seeks at least 35 seats (up from 2020’s five), has been locked in discussions with BJP leaders, who have reportedly offered 25. Paswan’s insistence stems from his party’s strong performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, where it secured all five contested seats in Bihar, bolstering his Dalit vote bank in the Seemanchal region.

Union Minister Giriraj Singh exuded confidence, predicting an NDA supermajority with over two-thirds of seats, citing the coalition’s focus on development and welfare schemes like the PM Awas Yojana and Ujjwala. JD(U) spokesperson Sanjay Singh highlighted Nitish Kumar’s ‘sushasan’ (good governance) model, emphasizing infrastructure projects from bullock carts to metro rails. Meanwhile, HAM(S) chief Jitan Ram Manjhi has been vocal about caste-based outreach, urging the NDA to address reservation concerns.

Mahagathbandhan’s Counteroffensive: RJD Eyes Yadav Strongholds

The opposition Mahagathbandhan RJD, Congress, and Left parties is countering with a narrative of ‘jungle raj’ reversal and youth empowerment. RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav accused the NDA of planning to ‘run away’ post-polls, while Tejashwi positioned himself as the ‘future CM,’ promising 10 lakh government jobs and a caste census. Congress CEC is set to finalize its candidate list today, potentially deciding on high-profile seats like Vaishali, where Tejashwi faces a potential challenge from Prashant Kishor.

Tensions simmer within the alliance, however. The CPI(ML) Liberation rejected RJD’s offer of 19 seats, calling it ‘unacceptable’ and alleging attempts to swap winnable constituencies. AAP has released its first list of 11 candidates, signaling a limited but targeted intervention.

Wildcards and Controversies: Prashant Kishor, AIMIM, and Voter List Row

Political strategist Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is emerging as a disruptor, with Kishor confirming his candidacy from Vaishali and promising a ‘surprise’ candidate list on October 9. The party aims to capitalize on anti-incumbency against both major alliances, focusing on unemployment and migration.

AIMIM, led by Asaduddin Owaisi, is ramping up its presence after being sidelined by the INDIA bloc. Owaisi announced contests in four Mithilanchal seats (Jale, Bisfi, Keoti, Darbhanga town) and named Shaan-e-Ali Khan as its candidate from Sherghati (Gaya). The party’s ‘Seemanchal Nyay Yatra’ underscores its Muslim outreach, having won five seats in 2020.

The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, conducted in June, added 1.5 crore voters but drew flak for alleged deletions targeting Dalits and Muslims – claims the ECI dismissed as ‘fake news.’ Tejashwi Yadav’s August allegation of his name being struck off was debunked, with the ECI labeling his EPIC as fake. The Supreme Court, hearing related pleas today, termed SIR ‘voter-friendly’ but refused interim relief.

To enhance verification, the ECI has directed Anganwadi workers to assist in identifying burqa-clad women voters at booths, amid BJP’s push for stricter checks.

Opinion Polls Tilt Towards NDA, But Youth Factor Looms Large

A recent MATRIZE-IANS opinion poll projects a clear NDA edge: BJP at 35% vote share (110-120 seats), JD(U) at 18% (60-65 seats), with allies adding 10-15 more for a total of 185+ seats. RJD leads the opposition at 22% (70-80 seats), but internal frictions could erode gains. Another survey by Mathrubhumi shows Nitish Kumar as the top CM choice, followed closely by Tejashwi.

Ground reports from districts like Jehanabad indicate high enthusiasm, with DM Alankrita Pandey and SP Vineet Kumar reviewing security in joint meetings. Celebrity buzz includes folk singer Maithili Thakur hinting at a BJP ticket from Alinagar and Bhojpuri star Khesari Lal Yadav’s wife Chandan eyeing RJD’s Manjhi seat.

As nominations open next week, Bihar’s voters grappling with migration, joblessness, and caste equations hold the key. Will Nitish’s development pitch prevail, or will Tejashwi’s promise of change resonate? The next month will tell. For live updates, stay tuned to India News Reporter.

India News Reporter is your trusted source for unbiased election coverage. Voter helpline: 1950.

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